← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |