← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Store Championship
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
10-2-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
78.2%
avg ELO +12.0 per match
expected value
62.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
62.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1443
· median 1443
· range 1418–1468
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1192
Q3 1398
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
