Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Michigan AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Slimes | 11.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 33.0% | -9.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |