Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Michigan AMB Regionals
decks
4
(6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
7-14-2
overall winrate
34.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.5%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1184
· median 1184
· range 1130–1236
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1194
Q3 1364
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Slimes | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Diana | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
