Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Michigan AMB Regionals
decks
2
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-6-1
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1204–1323
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1194
Q3 1364
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Slimes | 11.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
