Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Michigan AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.2% | +4.6 |
| Slimes | 11.9% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 47.6% | -1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.8% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 67.0% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |