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SlimesTier 1

at Michigan AMB Regionals

decks
7 (11.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39 19-18-2
overall winrate
51.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
50.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307 · median 1307 · range 1197–1476 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
959 Q1 1194 Q3 1364 1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill 15.3% 8 3-4-1 43.8% 45.8% 43.2% -3.2
Wind Allies 13.6% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.4% -1.7
Water Penguin Mill 10.2% 8 3-4-1 43.8% 45.8% 52.4% +1.2
Wind Astra Cleric 8.5% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.2
Fire Crux Mage 6.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Wind Shadowstrike 6.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 5.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.2% +11.8
Fire Aggro 3.4% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.7
Fire Polkhawk 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.2
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.7% 0
Fire Slimes 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.1% -11.0
Water Allies 1.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.4
Water Diana 1.7% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.7% 0
Water Slimes 1.7% 0
Wind Silvie 1.7% 0
Wind Slimes 1.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -16.9
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Blissful Calling -1.00 0 1 0
Slime King -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Boots -1.00 0 1 0
Slime's Blessing +1.00 1 0 0
Lustrous Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +1.00 1 0 0
Bestial Frenzy -1.00 0 1 0
Gaia's Songbird -1.00 0 1 0
Reprogram -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Escape the Wreckage -1.00 0 1 0
Twilight Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/16405/archetypes/Slimes