Water AlliesTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
decks
2
(5.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1207
· median 1207
· range 1207–1208
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1159
Q3 1309
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Silvie | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
