Mortal Ambition Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 1	6	15.4%	8-8-6	50.0%	49.5%	51.9%	51.9%	1207	—
2		Wind Allies	Tier 1	6	15.4%	18-8-4	66.7%	61.9%	52.9%	52.0%	1210	—
3		Fire Exia	Tier 2	3	7.7%	3-6-2	36.4%	39.8%	47.9%	47.8%	1243	—
4		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	3	7.7%	3-6-2	36.4%	43.1%	43.3%	44.7%	1233	—
5		Water Allies	Tier 2	2	5.1%	3-5-1	38.9%	41.7%	45.7%	45.7%	1207	—
6		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	2	5.1%	7-2-1	75.0%	70.4%	56.2%	57.4%	1362	↑ top
7		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	2	5.1%	5-4-2	54.5%	54.1%	52.3%	52.2%	1325	↑ top
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	5.1%	6-3-1	65.0%	54.1%	52.8%	50.0%	1243	—
9		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-2-0	33.3%	43.4%	48.6%	48.7%	1128	↓ low
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-5-0	16.7%	37.0%	41.7%	45.3%	1222	—
11		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-2-0	60.0%	51.6%	54.3%	52.4%	1335	↑ top
12		Fire Neos Tonoris	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-3-0	40.0%	50.7%	46.5%	50.0%	1093	↓ low
13		Fire Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.6%	0-5-0	0.0%	30.0%	36.0%	40.1%	1074	↓ low
14		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	1	2.6%	0-2-0	0.0%	34.0%	40.0%	40.4%	1200	—
15		Fire Tera Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	40.6%	42.9%	43.3%	1125	↓ low
16		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.6%	4-1-2	71.4%	56.2%	53.5%	50.6%	1382	↑ top
17		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-1-2	66.7%	54.6%	48.7%	47.4%	1335	↑ top
18		Water Tera Mage	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-2-2	40.0%	46.5%	47.7%	48.8%	1163	↓ low
19		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-2-1	50.0%	47.5%	46.7%	46.2%	1208	—
20		Wind Exia	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-1-0	50.0%	50.1%	50.0%	50.1%	1103	↓ low
21		Wind Overlord	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-3-0	40.0%	47.8%	42.7%	44.4%	1111	↓ low
22		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	1	2.6%	0-2-0	0.0%	34.0%	40.0%	40.7%	1169	↓ low
23		Wind Umbra Tristan	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-1-2	66.7%	65.0%	51.8%	54.0%	1194	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 6 decks · 15.4%
• Wind Allies 6 decks · 15.4%
• Fire Exia 3 decks · 7.7%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 3 decks · 7.7%
• Water Allies 2 decks · 5.1%
• Water Penguin Mill 2 decks · 5.1%
• Wind Astra Cleric 2 decks · 5.1%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 5.1%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Neos Tonoris 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Silvie 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Tera Silvie 1 deck · 2.6%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.6%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 2.6%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 2.6%
• Water Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Exia 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Umbra Tristan 1 deck · 2.6%