Wind AlliesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
decks
6
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
18-8-4
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.9%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1210
· median 1207
· range 1111–1313
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1159
Q3 1309
1493
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.7% | -10.7 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.7% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.2% | +11.3 |
| Fire Silvie | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Rallied Advance, Wind Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Reclaim, Shimmercloak Assassin, Andronika, Eternal Herald.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Rallied Advance
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Charged Mannequin
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Andronika, Eternal Herald
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Oath of the Sakura
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 88 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 78 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Assembler | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Formidable Youxia | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backstep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shred to Ribbons | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Atmos Armor Type-Hermes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Emerald Pistol | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlord Mk III | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harvester Mk II | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |