Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |