EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cancon 2025 Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 85.0% | 62.4% | 59.4% | 54.6% | 1571 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.9% | 57.3% | 56.0% | 1257 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 56.2% | 55.0% | 60.0% | 972 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 34.1% | 53.8% | 48.5% | 1547 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Slimes | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 48.9% | 51.7% | 47.8% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 6 | 22.2% | 26 | 51.9% | 48.4% | 50.2% | 49.2% | 1289 | — |
| 7 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.9% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 39.4% | 48.5% | 45.6% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Arisanna | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.4% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 40.0% | 54.0% | 47.9% | 51.3% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Slimes | 3 | 11.1% | 15 | 30.0% | 43.1% | 47.7% | 50.6% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 45.0% | 57.1% | 47.6% | 52.8% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 47.0% | 50.1% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 1361 | — |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.0% | 43.6% | 42.7% | 1307 | — |