Water AlliesTier 2
at Scrubbed out of Steel
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
7-7-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1189
· range 1186–1490
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1030
Q1 1214
Q3 1414
1689
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
