Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Scrubbed out of Steel
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Slimes | 8.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Torrential Blast, Tidal Lock. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Frostbind, Water Resonance Bauble.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Herbs | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diablerie | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |