Scrubbed out of Steel

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	6	17.1%	13-10-1	56.2%	49.8%	52.3%	49.9%	1405	↑ top
2		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 1	4	11.4%	11-10-0	52.4%	52.7%	48.5%	50.7%	1227	↓ low
3		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	4	11.4%	11-11-0	50.0%	50.1%	51.4%	50.5%	1333	—
4		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	3	8.6%	2-8-0	20.0%	46.2%	39.3%	48.1%	1306	—
5		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	3	8.6%	9-9-0	50.0%	48.7%	48.2%	49.1%	1338	—
6		Slimes	Tier 1	3	8.6%	9-6-1	59.4%	50.9%	53.5%	50.5%	1209	↓ low
7		Water Allies	Tier 2	3	8.6%	7-7-2	50.0%	50.8%	47.5%	50.1%	1288	—
8		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	3	8.6%	10-4-0	71.4%	49.6%	56.1%	49.9%	1482	↑ top
9		Wind Allies	Tier 1	2	5.7%	6-3-1	65.0%	53.1%	54.9%	51.3%	1323	—
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.9%	2-4-0	33.3%	47.7%	45.3%	49.1%	1364	—
11		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-3-0	25.0%	48.3%	43.1%	48.9%	1388	—
12		Water Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.9%	0-3-1	12.5%	47.5%	41.0%	48.8%	1189	↓ low
13		Wind Overlord	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-2-2	57.1%	52.6%	53.1%	51.2%	1189	↓ low
14		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	1	2.9%	1-5-0	16.7%	47.6%	44.9%	49.6%	1030	↓ low
15		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.9%	3-3-0	50.0%	50.0%	48.0%	49.7%	1307	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Penguin Mill 6 decks · 17.1%
• Water Ravishing Mill 4 decks · 11.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 4 decks · 11.4%
• Fire Aggro 3 decks · 8.6%
• Fire Slimes 3 decks · 8.6%
• Slimes 3 decks · 8.6%
• Water Allies 3 decks · 8.6%
• Wind Astra Cleric 3 decks · 8.6%
• Wind Allies 2 decks · 5.7%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 2.9%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.9%
• Water Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 2.9%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.9%