Fire AggroTier 2
at Haven Games Regional
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.0%
avg ELO -12.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1237
· median 1237
· range 1237–1237
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1183
Q3 1358
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
