Water Crux MageTier 2
at Haven Games Regional
decks
2
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1350
· median 1350
· range 1303–1397
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1183
Q3 1358
1652
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Slimes | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Water Silvie | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
