Water AlliesTier 2
at Haven Games Regional
decks
2
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1133–1208
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1183
Q3 1358
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
