Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Haven Games Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Slimes | 10.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.5% | -7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Wind Cats | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |