← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/30/2025

Water AlliesTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/30/2025

decks
4 (9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9 2-7-0
overall winrate
22.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6% avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
44.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1328 · median 1278 · range 1208–1548 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083 Q1 1208 Q3 1433 1652
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Crux Mage 9.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Penguin Mill 9.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Ravishing Mill 9.5% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 9.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Slimes 7.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.2
Fire Aggro 4.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 49.1% -0.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 0
Fire Slimes 4.8% 0
Water Astra Cleric 4.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.4
Wind Allies 4.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 4.8% 0
Fire Neos 2.4% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 2.4% 0
Shadowstrike 2.4% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.3% -1.2
Water Silvie 2.4% 0
Water Tera Mage 2.4% 0
Wind Exia 2.4% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Song of Frost -1.00 0 1 0
Frostbind -1.00 0 1 0
Cao Cao, Aspirant of Chaos +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Zander, Deft Executor -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Snow Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Hydroguard Retainer +1.00 1 0 0
Nia, Mistveiled Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Fan of Seven Debts +1.00 1 0 0
Bubble Mage +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Lost in Thought +1.00 1 0 0
Slice and Dice -1.00 0 1 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Seasprite Diver -1.00 0 1 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +1.00 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper -1.00 0 1 0
Frostsworn Paladin +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Freezing Hail -1.00 0 1 0
Kongming, Ascetic Vice +1.00 1 0 0
Coriolis Ward +1.00 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Halocline Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester -1.00 0 1 0
Zander, Corhazi's Chosen -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Shining Marchador +1.00 1 0 0
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Poisoned Dagger -1.00 0 1 0
Chilling Touch +1.00 1 0 0
Zander, Prepared Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Corhazi Trapper -1.00 0 1 0
Jueying, Shadowmare +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/18241/archetypes/Water Allies