← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/30/2025
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 1/30/2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |