← Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event

Fire AggroTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event

decks
4 (7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19 8-8-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1% avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1362 · median 1344 · range 1219–1541 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039 Q1 1241 Q3 1432 1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 16.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.8% -0.2
Wind Astra Cleric 10.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.9
Water Penguin Mill 8.9% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 50.7% +0.4
Wind Razorgale 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Fire Exia 5.4% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.1% +1.7
Water Allies 5.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.3% -1.1
Water Ravishing Mill 5.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Allies 5.4% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 49.1% -0.8
Water Luxem Assassin 3.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Exia 3.6% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 3.6% 0
Fire Arcane 1.8% 0
Fire Kongming 1.8% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.8% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.8% 0
Water Kongming 1.8% 0
Water Neos 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.0% +1.6
Wind Neos 1.8% 0
Wind Slimes 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.2% +1.9
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Vermilion Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Increasing Danger +1.00 1 0 0
Heavy Swing -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Captivating Cutthroat +1.00 1 0 0
Planted Explosive +1.00 1 0 0
Heated Vengeance +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Soulknife +1.00 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Mystic Purifier -1.00 0 1 0
Woodland Squirrels +1.00 1 0 0
Tonoris, Might of Humanity -1.00 0 1 0
Focused Flames -1.00 0 1 0
Surging Bolt -1.00 0 1 0
Ignite Fate -1.00 0 1 0
Arthur, Young Heir +1.00 1 0 0
Mercenary's Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Imperial Panzer -1.00 0 1 0
Take Point -1.00 0 1 0
Deflecting Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Forgelight Shieldmaiden -1.00 0 1 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock -1.00 0 1 0
Flame Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Bowman -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
City Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Seasoned Shieldmaster -1.00 0 1 0
Imperial Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil +1.00 1 0 0
Bulwark Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Corhazi Courier +1.00 1 0 0
Rending Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Poisoned Dagger +1.00 1 0 0
Zander, Prepared Scout +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/19247/archetypes/Fire Aggro