← Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Panzer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Shieldmaiden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| City Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasoned Shieldmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |