← Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event

decks
9 (16.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33 14-14-5
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1% avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
52.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406 · median 1420 · range 1183–1648 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039 Q1 1241 Q3 1432 1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 11% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Astra Cleric 10.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.3
Water Penguin Mill 8.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.2% +0.2
Fire Aggro 7.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.2% +0.2
Wind Razorgale 7.1% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 48.9% -0.6
Fire Exia 5.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.4% +0.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.5% -0.8
Water Allies 5.4% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Ravishing Mill 5.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.7
Wind Allies 5.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.2% +2.0
Water Luxem Assassin 3.6% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 49.9% -0.0
Wind Exia 3.6% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 3.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.5% +0.5
Fire Arcane 1.8% 0
Fire Kongming 1.8% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.1
Water Crux Lorraine 1.8% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Water Kongming 1.8% 0
Water Neos 1.8% 0
Wind Neos 1.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Slimes 1.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Thunderclap, Disintegrate, Favorable Winds. Losers more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Kongming, Wayward Maven, Spark Alight.

Played more by winners
Thunderclap
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Disintegrate
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Kongming, Wayward Maven
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Spark Alight
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Harmonious Mantra
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Thunderclap +0.75 3 0 1
Disintegrate +0.75 3 0 1
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 2 2
Fast Cure +0.50 2 0 2
Sudden Steel +0.50 2 0 2
Favorable Winds +0.50 3 1 0
Scry the Skies +0.50 2 0 1
Spirit Blade: Ascension +0.50 2 0 2
Incapacitate -0.50 0 2 2
Reduce to Ash +0.50 3 1 0
Sable Remnant +0.50 2 0 0
Incarnate Majesty -0.50 1 3 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.50 0 2 2
Drawn Blade +0.50 2 0 2
Prismatic Edge +0.50 2 0 2
Mnemonic Charm -0.50 0 2 1
Nascent Blast -0.50 0 2 0
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 2 0
Tome of Sorcery -0.50 0 2 0
Incendiary Fractal -0.50 0 2 0
Devastating Blow -0.50 0 2 0
Ignite the Soul -0.50 0 2 0
Varuckan Acolyte -0.50 0 2 0
Heighten Spellcraft -0.50 0 2 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire +0.25 2 1 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.25 1 2 0
Cremation Ritual +0.25 2 1 1
Hasty Messenger +0.25 2 1 1
Spark Alight -0.25 1 2 1
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.25 2 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.25 0 1 3
Harmonious Mantra -0.25 1 2 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +0.25 2 1 1
Library Witch -0.25 1 2 0
Spirit of Fire -0.25 0 1 3
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.25 2 1 1
Freezing Steel +0.25 2 1 0
Honorable Vanguard -0.25 1 2 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.25 1 2 0
Potion Infusion: Seal +0.25 2 1 0
Gentle Respite +0.25 1 0 0
Meltdown -0.25 0 1 0
Lavasoul Tiger -0.25 0 1 0
Purge in Flames +0.00 1 1 2
Under Fire +0.00 1 1 1
Backup Charger +0.00 1 1 2
Scatter Essence +0.00 1 1 0
Mystic Purifier +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/19247/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage