← Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Win-An-HVN-Case Event
decks
5
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
9-16-2
overall winrate
37.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1227
· median 1171
· range 1039–1624
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1241
Q3 1432
1750
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
80% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
