EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 3/28/2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Neos

56.9%

2.6% share · 4 matches

1st

Fire Neos Tonoris

60.0%

2.6% share · 4 matches

10.5% share · 15 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Neos Tonoris	1	2.6%	4	100.0%	51.6%	60.0%	50.6%	1426	↑ top
2	Water Neos	1	2.6%	4	75.0%	51.4%	56.9%	50.8%	1367	—
3	Water Allies	4	10.5%	15	60.0%	50.3%	54.9%	50.3%	1415	↑ top
4	Water Luxem Assassin	1	2.6%	4	50.0%	50.1%	54.7%	50.5%	1388	—
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	7.9%	9	61.1%	51.3%	52.6%	50.5%	1310	—
6	Wind Allies	3	7.9%	10	60.0%	50.9%	51.9%	50.3%	1330	—
7	Fire Arcane	3	7.9%	9	61.1%	50.2%	50.6%	49.9%	1320	—
8	Fire Umbra Ranger	6	15.8%	15	43.3%	49.2%	49.9%	49.8%	1284	↓ low
9	Fire Crux Mage	4	10.5%	12	54.2%	50.4%	48.7%	49.9%	1321	—
10	Wind Crux Lorraine	2	5.3%	8	56.2%	50.0%	47.6%	49.7%	1463	↑ top
11	Fire Crux Lorraine	3	7.9%	12	45.8%	49.9%	46.0%	49.9%	1527	↑ top
12	Fire Erupting	2	5.3%	4	25.0%	48.9%	44.4%	49.5%	1305	—
13	Wind Tera Tamer	1	2.6%	4	25.0%	49.5%	41.8%	49.5%	1138	↓ low
14	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	3	0.0%	47.9%	40.0%	49.1%	1353	—
15	Water Tonoris	1	2.6%	2	0.0%	49.1%	40.0%	49.4%	1281	↓ low
16	Water Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	3	0.0%	48.4%	40.0%	49.2%	1190	↓ low
17	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.6%	2	0.0%	48.6%	40.0%	49.1%	1152	↓ low