MVG HVN Regional 4/6

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Fractal	Tier 2	8	17.8%	16-17-7	48.8%	46.4%	51.6%	50.9%	1233	—
2		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	5	11.1%	9-14-0	39.1%	42.8%	44.0%	46.1%	1247	—
3		Fire Cinderbloom Combo	Tier 1	4	8.9%	13-7-2	63.6%	57.6%	52.9%	52.1%	1280	—
4		Wind Allies	Tier 1	3	6.7%	13-5-1	71.1%	67.1%	51.8%	52.5%	1263	—
5		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 2	3	6.7%	8-8-0	50.0%	31.3%	48.0%	40.7%	1334	↑ top
6		Water Genbu	Tier 1	2	4.4%	7-5-0	58.3%	52.7%	53.8%	53.8%	1293	—
7		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	2	4.4%	7-3-2	66.7%	50.1%	56.2%	51.0%	1380	↑ top
8		Wind Diana	Tier 2	2	4.4%	3-5-2	40.0%	50.1%	47.2%	49.9%	1143	↓ low
9		Wind Exia	Tier 1	2	4.4%	6-7-0	46.2%	52.1%	52.8%	54.1%	1236	—
10		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	4.4%	7-4-1	62.5%	58.0%	51.8%	52.0%	1402	↑ top
11		Exia	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-5-0	16.7%	41.3%	41.0%	45.4%	1004	↓ low
12		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-4-0	33.3%	51.2%	49.0%	51.9%	1471	↑ top
13		Fire Dawn of Ashes	Tier 2	1	2.2%	3-2-1	58.3%	54.5%	47.0%	48.0%	1212	—
14		Fire Exia Jin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-4-1	25.0%	42.7%	45.2%	48.6%	1123	↓ low
15		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-4-0	33.3%	48.5%	50.0%	53.4%	1140	↓ low
16		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	4-0-2	83.3%	65.4%	57.8%	55.4%	1432	↑ top
17		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	1	2.2%	3-3-0	50.0%	54.9%	53.7%	55.3%	1167	↓ low
18		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	2.2%	4-2-0	66.7%	56.4%	54.2%	54.4%	1272	—
19		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-5-2	14.3%	32.5%	45.3%	46.4%	1267	—
20		Wind Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-3-1	41.7%	55.4%	45.8%	51.2%	1057	↓ low
21		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-4-0	20.0%	42.3%	39.0%	44.0%	1064	↓ low
22		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-2-2	50.0%	53.1%	49.2%	54.5%	1193	↓ low
23		Wind Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-1-0	0.0%	41.6%	40.0%	41.6%	1091	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Fractal 8 decks · 17.8%
• Fire Aggro 5 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Cinderbloom Combo 4 decks · 8.9%
• Wind Allies 3 decks · 6.7%
• Wind Seiryuu 3 decks · 6.7%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 4.4%
• Water Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 4.4%
• Wind Diana 2 decks · 4.4%
• Wind Exia 2 decks · 4.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 4.4%
• Exia 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Exia Jin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Suzaku 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Silvie 1 deck · 2.2%