Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at MVG HVN Regional 4/6
decks
2
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1323–1436
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1134
Q3 1327
1511
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 8.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Diana | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Exia | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
