ExiaTier 2
at MVG HVN Regional 4/6
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1004
· median 1004
· range 1004–1004
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1134
Q3 1327
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
