Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at MVG HVN Regional 4/6
decks
2
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.0%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1402
· median 1402
· range 1368–1435
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1134
Q3 1327
1511
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 8.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
