HVN Massachusetts Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	4	10.3%	12-11-0	52.2%	56.5%	50.0%	51.3%	1196	↓ low
2		Fire Tera Diao Chan	Tier 2	4	10.3%	3-11-0	21.4%	37.7%	42.2%	45.8%	1121	↓ low
3		Water Fractal	Tier 1	3	7.7%	9-8-1	52.8%	53.8%	51.1%	51.5%	1269	—
4		Wind Allies	Tier 1	3	7.7%	11-4-3	69.4%	48.9%	56.7%	50.8%	1408	↑ top
5		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	3	7.7%	11-4-3	69.4%	57.5%	55.7%	52.9%	1346	↑ top
6		Fire Tera Mage	Tier 2	2	5.1%	1-7-0	12.5%	32.4%	41.0%	43.3%	1165	↓ low
7		Water Genbu	Tier 2	2	5.1%	3-3-3	50.0%	56.3%	49.0%	50.8%	1253	—
8		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	2	5.1%	5-2-3	65.0%	60.1%	52.5%	53.3%	1372	↑ top
9		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	2	5.1%	3-6-0	33.3%	36.9%	50.4%	48.4%	1256	—
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	41.5%	45.6%	45.2%	1148	↓ low
11		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.6%	4-0-2	83.3%	66.8%	56.2%	55.2%	1422	↑ top
12		Fire Dawn of Ashes	Tier 2	1	2.6%	4-2-0	66.7%	63.4%	52.9%	53.3%	1244	—
13		Fire Kongming	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-2-1	58.3%	52.5%	51.7%	51.4%	1401	↑ top
14		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-2-0	33.3%	42.7%	45.7%	46.4%	1304	—
15		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	41.7%	47.1%	47.8%	1311	↑ top
16		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-3-1	41.7%	54.9%	50.0%	53.0%	1282	—
17		Wind Byakko	Tier 2	1	2.6%	4-1-1	75.0%	53.7%	55.9%	51.4%	1311	↑ top
18		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-2-1	58.3%	46.1%	50.9%	48.6%	1307	—
19		Wind Exia	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-5-0	16.7%	38.7%	41.4%	44.8%	1278	—
20		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-3-0	50.0%	51.7%	52.5%	53.1%	1287	—
21		Wind Umbra Diana	Tier 2	1	2.6%	1-2-1	37.5%	47.0%	47.8%	49.7%	1222	—
22		Wind Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	1	2.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	44.3%	44.3%	45.4%	1191	↓ low
23		Zander	Tier 2	1	2.6%	3-3-0	50.0%	50.3%	48.3%	48.4%	1159	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Aggro 4 decks · 10.3%
• Fire Tera Diao Chan 4 decks · 10.3%
• Water Fractal 3 decks · 7.7%
• Wind Allies 3 decks · 7.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 7.7%
• Fire Tera Mage 2 decks · 5.1%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 5.1%
• Water Luxem Assassin 2 decks · 5.1%
• Wind Seiryuu 2 decks · 5.1%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Kongming 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.6%
• Fire Suzaku 1 deck · 2.6%
• Water Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Byakko 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Exia 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Luxem Zander 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Umbra Diana 1 deck · 2.6%
• Wind Umbra Ranger 1 deck · 2.6%
• Zander 1 deck · 2.6%