Water FractalTier 1
at HVN Massachusetts Regionals
decks
3
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-8-1
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1327
· range 1153–1329
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1190
Q3 1328
1474
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Zander | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
