Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at HVN Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliburn of Silencing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |