Fire Tera Diao ChanTier 2
at HVN Massachusetts Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Tera Diao Chan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Solar Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |