← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
58.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1599
· median 1599
· range 1599–1599
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1215
Q3 1404
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
