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Water FractalTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.7% | -1.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |