← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.1% | +1.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 66 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Axis Gale Scholar | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Usurp the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tailwind's Blessing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Landscape Corsair | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckless Slash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wulin Lancer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |