EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 3/29 大圖盃台中預賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 4 | 10.0% | 19 | 68.4% | 52.2% | 55.7% | 50.8% | 1241 | — |
| 2 | Fire Byakko | 2 | 5.0% | 11 | 63.6% | 50.0% | 55.1% | 50.3% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 5.0% | 11 | 63.6% | 50.0% | 55.1% | 50.3% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 5.0% | 15 | 70.0% | 54.0% | 54.3% | 51.2% | 1448 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 15.0% | 29 | 63.8% | 51.0% | 54.0% | 50.3% | 1291 | — |
| 6 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.5% | 8 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 52.1% | 50.4% | 1276 | — |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.4% | 51.1% | 50.6% | 1254 | — |
| 8 | Water Byakko | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1340 | — |
| 9 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1340 | — |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.5% | 7 | 35.7% | 50.3% | 48.6% | 50.2% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.8% | 48.6% | 50.5% | 1324 | — |
| 13 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.3% | 47.9% | 49.6% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.0% | 11 | 63.6% | 50.8% | 47.2% | 49.2% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 7.5% | 16 | 37.5% | 48.9% | 46.9% | 49.8% | 1251 | — |
| 16 | Wind Allies | 3 | 7.5% | 15 | 43.3% | 50.3% | 46.3% | 49.9% | 1246 | — |
| 17 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 30.0% | 47.7% | 45.8% | 49.3% | 1284 | — |
| 18 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.4% | 45.6% | 48.7% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Water Kongming | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 45.5% | 44.3% | 48.4% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.5% | 44.3% | 49.3% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2 | 5.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 48.3% | 43.8% | 49.6% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 7.5% | 16 | 31.2% | 48.0% | 42.8% | 49.0% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 23 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 48.8% | 41.3% | 49.5% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.4% | 41.1% | 49.6% | 1161 | ↓ low |