← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/27/2025
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 3/27/2025
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1159–1340
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1234
Q3 1423
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
