← MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
Fire AggroTier 1
at MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ash Filcher | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Melodious Flute | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shout at Your Pets | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Azurite Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |