← MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO

Fire AggroTier 1

at MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO

decks
3 (15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16 10-6-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6% avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
50.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1263 · median 1147 · range 1130–1513 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1050 Q1 1154 Q3 1422 1532
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 20.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 43.2% -5.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 10.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.7% -2.5
Wind Seiryuu 10.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.0% +9.5
Wind Shadowstrike 10.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.9% -17.7
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 5.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.4% +15.7
Fire Crux Mage 5.0% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 5.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.4% +15.7
Fire Seiryuu 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.3
Fire Suzaku 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.2% +1.1
Water Genbu 5.0% 0
Water Luxem Zander 5.0% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 5.0% 0
Wind Allies 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.4% +15.0
Wind Razorgale 5.0% 0
Wind Tera Mage 5.0% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple -1.00 0 1 0
Ash Filcher +1.00 1 0 0
Flashfire Horse +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Increasing Danger +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Lunge +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewing Fowl -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Out +1.00 1 0 0
Relic of Dancing Embers -1.00 0 1 0
Young Beastbonder -1.00 0 1 0
Hone by Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Beastsoul Visage -1.00 0 1 0
Ignite Fate -1.00 0 1 0
Portentous Tanggu -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Demolition +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Lavasoul Tiger -1.00 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Reimagined +1.00 1 0 0
Melodious Flute -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Allen, Beast Beckoner -1.00 0 1 0
Direwolf Alpha -1.00 0 1 0
Shout at Your Pets -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Fabled Azurite Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Blademaster +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Fiery Momentum +1.00 1 0 0
Sword Saint's Vow +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Shatter the Brittle -1.00 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Sword Saint of Everflame +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Fanatical Devotee -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Bauble of Abundance -1.00 0 1 0
Disenchant +1.00 1 0 0
Dire Requiem -1.00 0 1 0
Tempered Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Strapping Conscript +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/22447/archetypes/Fire Aggro