← MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
Water FractalTier 1
at MAY 11 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 27.6% | -12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 |