EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 83.3% | 62.3% | 70.0% | 62.8% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 8 | 19.5% | 41 | 59.8% | 57.6% | 54.8% | 53.8% | 1304 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 54.2% | 51.2% | 54.4% | 54.3% | 1226 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 4.9% | 9 | 44.4% | 37.4% | 53.3% | 48.0% | 1286 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 2 | 4.9% | 12 | 75.0% | 69.3% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Seiryuu | 2 | 4.9% | 10 | 45.0% | 51.6% | 52.7% | 52.9% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.5% | 52.2% | 54.1% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 46.3% | 52.1% | 46.5% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.3% | 52.1% | 52.0% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 2.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 47.8% | 52.0% | 49.9% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.6% | 50.5% | 53.5% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 4.9% | 13 | 50.0% | 53.4% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 4.9% | 13 | 61.5% | 52.1% | 49.0% | 45.9% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.8% | 47.8% | 51.3% | 1234 | — |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.5% | 46.7% | 43.4% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Slimes | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 46.0% | 1269 | — |
| 18 | Water Allies | 2 | 4.9% | 10 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 44.2% | 46.3% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.5% | 43.0% | 45.3% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Allies | 6 | 14.6% | 27 | 33.3% | 39.3% | 42.7% | 45.2% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 2.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 27.4% | 42.5% | 41.8% | 1250 | — |
| 22 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.4% | 4 | 12.5% | 38.4% | 41.1% | 44.7% | 1054 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.4% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 1043 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.7% | 36.7% | 43.3% | 1141 | ↓ low |