EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 2 | 6.2% | 13 | 69.2% | 60.4% | 57.1% | 54.7% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 5 | 15.6% | 21 | 66.7% | 63.2% | 55.8% | 55.5% | 1312 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 68.2% | 56.9% | 53.5% | 51.7% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 65.3% | 53.3% | 57.2% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.6% | 51.4% | 50.4% | 1305 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.4% | 17 | 47.1% | 42.4% | 50.4% | 48.5% | 1360 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.7% | 50.3% | 49.8% | 1522 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 46.2% | 44.7% | 48.6% | 48.7% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 9.4% | 11 | 54.5% | 56.3% | 48.2% | 49.9% | 1271 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.2% | 47.3% | 47.4% | 1278 | — |
| 11 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 47.3% | 49.3% | 1301 | — |
| 12 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.6% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1038 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.5% | 16 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 46.5% | 46.8% | 1375 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 45.3% | 45.5% | 1255 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 33.3% | 40.8% | 44.7% | 45.3% | 1285 | — |
| 16 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 42.5% | 46.0% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 26.3% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 29.7% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 985 | ↓ low |