Fire SuzakuTier 1

at Curio Grand Archive HVN Regionals

decks

6 (10.5% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

32 17-15-0

overall winrate

53.1%

ELO-adjusted winrate

57.8% avg ELO +2.8 per match

expected value

50.6% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

53.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill · average

mean ELO 1247 · median 1219 · range 1059–1418 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)

989 Q1 1179 Q3 1378 1656

33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal	12.3%	3	2-1-0	66.7%	57.1%	61.2%	+8.3
Water Genbu	12.3%	5	4-1-0	80.0%	66.7%	66.2%	+9.3
Wind Shadowstrike	10.5%	5	3-2-0	60.0%	55.6%	53.9%	+2.2
Wind Allies	8.8%	4	0-4-0	0.0%	25.0%	33.7%	-10.5
Wind Luxem Zander	7.0%	4	1-3-0	25.0%	37.5%	49.7%	-0.2
Wind Seiryuu	7.0%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	35.2%	-23.7
Fire Arcane	5.3%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	62.7%	+20.3
Wind Astra Cleric	3.5%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	43.7%	-10.0
Fire Aggro	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Firebloom Burn	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Kongming	1.8%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	58.1%	+13.0
Fire Luxem Assassin	1.8%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	40.9%	-14.6
Fire Seiryuu	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Slimes	1.8%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	60.6%	+17.0
Water Tera Kongming	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Arcane	1.8%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	62.8%	+12.3
Wind Beast	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Cats	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Crux Lorraine	1.8%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	68.7%	+17.9
Wind Exia	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Lorraine	1.8%	1	0-1-0	0.0%	40.0%	42.3%	-12.4
Wind Razorgale	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Wind Tera Tamer	1.8%	0	—	—	—	—	—

Decklists · 6 from this event

The 6 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Shatter the Brittle, Fire Resonance Bauble, Coiled Fatestone. Losers more often ran: Relic of Dancing Embers, Embertail Squirrel, Fast Cure.

↑ Played more by winners

Shatter the Brittle

Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Fire Resonance Bauble

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Coiled Fatestone

Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Flamewing Fowl

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Heated Vengeance

Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 3.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

Demolition

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers