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Water FractalTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 39.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Unstable Fractal, Wand of Frost.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |