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Water GenbuTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Wind Beast | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Primordial Ritual, Glacial Evocation. Losers more often ran: Expel the Departed, Strategem of Myriad Ice, Conniving Plans.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pang Tong, Young Phoenix | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |