← Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
8
(25.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29
12-14-3
overall winrate
46.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1237
· median 1213
· range 1143–1447
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1175
Q3 1298
1525
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.3% | -12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Kongming | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.3 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Intrusion, Extricating Touch, Dissonant Fractal. Losers more often ran: Fractal of Mana, Nascent Blast, Formidable Youxia.
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Banned
Dissonant Fractal
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Scepter of Fascination
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Rain
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Mana
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Nascent Blast
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Formidable Youxia
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 81 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Formidable Youxia | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Glimmering Refusal | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Entrancing Filigree | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Fel Eidolon | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devoted Bloomweaver | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planar Abyss | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palace Guard | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Maiden of Shimmering Air | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dawn of Ashes | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |