← Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional

Water Ravishing MillTier 2

at Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional

decks
2 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10 3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8% avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
46.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1215 · median 1215 · range 1127–1302 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1127 Q1 1175 Q3 1298 1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 25.8% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 51.6% +1.0
Wind Allies 12.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.5% -12.9
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 0
Water Genbu 6.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.1% -9.5
Wind Astra Cleric 6.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.7% -14.9
Wind Seiryuu 6.5% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 6.5% 0
Fire Arcane 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.5% -13.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.3
Water Allies 3.2% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 3.2% 0
Water Kongming 3.2% 0
Wind Exia 3.2% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 3.2% 0
Wind Neos 3.2% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/23375/archetypes/Water Ravishing Mill