← Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Game Nut Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1127–1302
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1175
Q3 1298
1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 12.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -12.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
