← Grand Library League S3 Finals
Fire SlimesTier 2
at Grand Library League S3 Finals
decks
4
(4.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
9-15-2
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1455
· median 1409
· range 1307–1694
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1217
Q3 1450
1694
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.6% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 8.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Neos | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
