← Grand Library League S3 Finals

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Grand Library League S3 Finals

decks
11 (12.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
77 35-35-7
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6% avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
51.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1321 · median 1293 · range 1062–1539 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1217 Q3 1450 1694
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 12.2% 8 2-6-0 25.0% 33.3% 47.0% -1.5
Water Fractal 8.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 51.9% +1.4
Water Genbu 8.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Allies 7.8% 9 7-2-0 77.8% 69.2% 53.7% +1.7
Wind Astra Cleric 7.8% 7 4-2-1 64.3% 59.1% 53.0% +1.5
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.6% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 51.4% +0.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 4.4% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 51.3% +0.8
Fire Slimes 4.4% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 51.4% +0.8
Wind Crux Lorraine 4.4% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 44.9% -3.8
Wind Seiryuu 4.4% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 53.1% +2.3
Wind Neos 3.3% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -0.8
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.2% 0
Fire Suzaku 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Byakko 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Razorgale 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Arcane 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 46.4% -3.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.1% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 50.6% +0.4
Fire Neos 1.1% 0
Norm Tera Silvie 1.1% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 48.8% -1.2
Water Polkhawk 1.1% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 48.2% -1.4
Water Ravishing Mill 1.1% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 48.3% -1.7
Wind Crux Mage 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Overlord 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 53.5% +3.4
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Ensnaring Fumes, Innervate Agility, Penumbral Waltz. Losers more often ran: Zephyr, Scatter Essence.

Played more by winners
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Penumbral Waltz
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 3 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.67 0 2 0
Veiling Breeze -0.67 0 2 1
Slice and Dice -0.67 0 2 1
Blinding Orb +0.67 2 0 1
Dream Fairy -0.67 0 2 1
Brackish Lutist +0.67 2 0 0
Reclaim +0.33 1 0 2
Dungeon Guide +0.33 1 0 2
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.33 0 1 2
Cry for Help +0.33 1 0 1
Nullifying Lantern +0.33 1 0 2
Verdigris Decree -0.33 0 1 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.33 1 0 2
Tariff Ring -0.33 0 1 0
Mastermind Scheme +0.33 1 0 2
Nullifying Mirror -0.33 0 1 1
Zephyr -0.33 1 2 0
Scatter Essence -0.33 1 2 0
Censer of Restful Peace -0.33 0 1 1
Innervate Agility +0.33 2 1 0
Penumbral Waltz +0.33 2 1 0
Aesan Protector -0.33 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang -0.33 0 1 0
Scout the Land +0.33 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +0.33 1 0 0
Reprogram +0.33 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.33 1 0 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +0.00 1 1 0
Heavenly Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 1 1 0
Winbless Lookout +0.00 1 1 1
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 1
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 1
Sirocco Operative +0.00 1 1 0
Blackmarket Broker +0.00 1 1 1
Staggering Strike +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/23650/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike