← Grand Library League S3 Finals
Water PolkhawkTier 2
at Grand Library League S3 Finals
decks
1
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-2-1
overall winrate
72.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
56.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1543
· median 1543
· range 1543–1543
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1217
Q3 1450
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.8% | +1.4 |
| Water Fractal | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Neos | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Polkhawk decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
